North America: closures, duties and weak housing demand reshape lumber flows — Canada leans to China, US exports stay constrained

The North American softwood lumber market entered 2026 under continued pressure, as mill closures, production curtailments and weak construction demand weighed on activity across both Canada and the United States, while trade policy continued to distort traditional supply and trade patterns. Since 2022, at least 22 sawmills across North America have permanently closed, while more than 50 others have reduced shifts, directly affecting more than 5,600 workers. Industry participants expect further strain on capacity through late 2025 and into early 2026, particularly in regions already facing tight log supply and rising costs. Recent curtailments by major producers ...